9 Million Vacant Homes, So Why Aren't Central Tokyo Prices Falling?
Many overseas readers assume that with so many empty homes in Japan, property must be cheap everywhere. Vacancies are indeed at a record level, but most sit in areas with little demand, while central and station-adjacent properties trade in a different market. In short, the number of vacant homes and the price of central property do not move in lockstep — the housing market is splitting into two tiers by location.
This article explains how to read the vacancy statistics, why central prices tend to hold, how the amended Vacant House Act affects buyers, and what to look at when choosing a property. Statistics and rules are subject to revision, so please confirm the latest details with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, and the local government.
Where are the 9 million vacant homes?
According to the 2023 Housing and Land Survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan has about 9 million vacant homes, a vacancy rate of 13.8% — both reported as record highs. The 2018 survey showed about 8.49 million (13.6%). Note that the figure includes homes listed for rent or sale and second homes such as holiday houses.
Of particular interest is the category of “other vacant homes”, which are neither for rent, for sale nor second homes, at about 3.85 million. Many are unlisted because owners are away long-term or plan demolition, and they tend to be concentrated in regions with shrinking populations.
Vacancy figures from the Housing and Land Survey
- Vacant homes nationwide (2023)
- 9million
- Vacancy rate (2023)
- 13.8%
- “Other vacant homes”
- 3.85million
- Vacant homes (2018)
- 8.49million
Reported as a record
Share of all housing units
Excluding rental and sale listings
Previous survey, five years earlier
Why don't central prices fall despite so many vacant homes?
Vacant homes are not spread evenly. In central and station-adjacent areas where people keep moving in, housing demand tends to exceed supply, so rising vacancies elsewhere do not translate directly into lower prices. For buyers, “many vacancies” does not mean “cheap everywhere” — there are places that attract buyers and places that struggle to.
Rising construction and labor costs and inflows of overseas capital helped by a weak yen are also cited as factors supporting urban prices. The outlook depends on the economy and interest rates, however, so no firm prediction can be made.
General tendencies by area type
| Factor | Central / near-station property | Older detached house in suburbs or rural areas |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Tends to be supported by inflows | Buyers tend to be limited by population decline and aging |
| Ease of resale | Comparatively easier to sell | Tends to take longer to sell |
| Upkeep burden | Mainly management and reserve fees | Effort for vegetation, roof and exterior |
| Risk of becoming vacant | Relatively low | If neglected, may be targeted as a poorly managed or designated vacant house |
How does the amended Vacant House Act affect buyers?
As vacancies grow, Japan amended its Act on Special Measures concerning Vacant Houses. The amendment in force since December 2023 created a new category of “inadequately managed vacant houses” — homes that could become designated vacant houses if left alone — allowing municipalities to give guidance and recommendations at an earlier stage.
A recommendation is understood to remove the residential land reduction in fixed asset tax. For anyone who inherits or buys a vacant house, leaving it unattended could therefore raise the tax burden — a change that matters to buyers as well.
Relevant laws
- Act on Special Measures concerning Vacant Houses, Article 2
- Defines “vacant houses” and “designated vacant houses”.
- Same Act, Article 13
- Provides that the municipal mayor may give guidance and recommendations regarding inadequately managed vacant houses.
- Same Act, Article 22
- Sets out measures for designated vacant houses, including advice, guidance, recommendations and orders.
- Local Tax Act, Article 349-3-2
- Provides the residential land tax reduction. It may cease to apply once a recommendation is issued.
What should you look at when choosing a property?
For overseas buyers, what matters is not just a low price but the exit: whether you can later sell or rent. Check population trends, distance to the nearest station, nearby rental demand and hazard maps together to judge whether buyers and tenants are likely to appear.
Common misses and fixes
✕Assuming “many vacancies means cheap everywhere” and choosing a property in an area with no demand.
→Check demographics and rental demand and consider the sale or rental exit first.
✕Looking only at the low price without estimating repair or demolition costs.
→Obtain repair and upkeep estimates before acquiring and judge on the total.
✕Not knowing about the Act amendment and letting the property sit until taxes rose.
→Maintain it regularly after acquisition and respond early to notices from the municipality.
✕Living abroad with nobody managing the property.
→Arrange a management company or local caretaker and secure a domestic contact.
Property selection checklist
- I checked population trends in the area
- I checked distance to the nearest station and rental demand
- I checked disaster risk on the hazard map
- I estimated repair, demolition and upkeep costs
- I defined a concrete sale or rental exit
- I checked the Vacant House Act and local rules
Frequently asked questions
- Q. Can I buy a cheap vacant house and rent it out?
- A. Sometimes, but you need to weigh repair costs, rental demand and management effort. In areas with weak demand, finding tenants can be hard.
- Q. Can foreigners buy vacant houses?
- A. Japan generally allows property acquisition regardless of nationality, though financing and procedures need to be checked case by case.
- Q. What is a vacant house bank?
- A. A scheme run by many municipalities that collects and introduces vacant house listings. Conditions and support vary by municipality.
- Q. What happens if my property is designated inadequately managed?
- A. The mayor may give guidance or a recommendation, and after a recommendation the residential land tax reduction may no longer apply. Confirm with the municipality.
In the SUMIMOTO Hub app, the 24-hour multilingual AI advisor explains how to read area demand and think about exit strategies. Before making a final decision, we also recommend confirming with a qualified professional.
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